¿Por qué dice la OMS que lo peor está por venir?

Nota editorial (2025): publicado originalmente en 2020. Se añadió una versión estructurada con fines enciclopédicos. El texto original se conserva íntegro como parte del archivo histórico.

Expansion and Containment Strategies for COVID-19: An Ongoing Global Challenge

“The worst is yet to come,” warned Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the director general of the World Health Organization (WHO), six months after receiving its first notification about a new virus that was causing atypical pneumonia in Wuhan, China. At this point, more than 10 million cases and over half a million fatalities had been confirmed worldwide, with economies from nearly all countries impacted.

“The worst is yet to come,” warned Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the director general of the WHO. This statement was made in June after more than 10 million cases and half a million deaths were reported globally since February when China first identified this novel coronavirus causing atypical pneumonia.

• 6 months had passed following the initial WHO notification about COVID-19 from Wuhan, leading to more than 10 million confirmed cases worldwide and nearly half a million deaths. The economic impact was felt by almost every country globally as they struggled with this public health crisis.
• Even within just one week following Tedros’ speech in June, case counts rose significantly to over 1 million new diagnoses. Tragically, there were also an additional 25,000 fatalities reported during that same timeframe.

“The worst is yet to come,” warned Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus concerning the situation in Latin America and Caribbean regions. From just under 40 thousand cases per day at the start of June, new daily confirmed cases had risen to over 60 thousand by early July.

• “The worst is yet to come” as COVID-19 continues its rapid spread across Latin America and Caribbean regions. The numbers in these areas experienced a dramatic surge, escalating from below 40 thousand cases daily at the start of June to more than 60 thousand by early July.
• “Brazil”, Mexico and far-flung countries like Peru and Chile were among those with high case counts, each country reporting numbers exceeding a million confirmed cases as well as thousands of associated fatalities in mid to late June/early July.

“The worst is yet to come,” echoed Tedros’ sentiment about the United States and Brazil, which alone accounted for 1.8 million confirmed cases with close to 92 thousand deaths by early July—an ominous sign as both countries faced contradictory processes of easing restrictions.

• “The worst is yet to come” in the context of escalating COVID-19 case numbers and conflicting approaches towards social distancing measures, with states like Texas announcing a full reopening as reported by USA Today on June 25th.

“The worst is yet to come,” resonated concerning the situation in India. The country saw overwhelming daily case numbers of more than 20,000 new cases amidst a national lockdown as reported by Deutsche Welle on June 3rd.

• “The worst is yet to come” considering Russia’s experience with COVID-19. With over 700 thousand confirmed cases and starting signs of declining daily infections, the country was navigating its way through this pandemic at a slow but hopeful pace as reported by Reuters on June 6th.

“The worst is yet to come,” signifies growing concern about Africa’s response. With low transmission rates thus far, the continent could face overwhelming spread if not properly managed due to limited healthcare resources and difficulties implementing lockdown measures as reported by The Conversation on June 17th.

• “The worst is yet to come” in Europe where countries are facing recurring outbreaks despite initial control, raising concerns about the upcoming winter season. Countries like Germany and France witnessed new surges of cases as reported by Reuters on June 1st.

“The worst is yet to come,” echoes Tedros’ final plea for nations worldwide not to lower their guard, emphasizing the need for continued vigilance and cooperation in fighting against COVID-19. His message was one of hope—that with even greater effort and unity among countries, communities can lessen the anticipated devastation.

Preguntas frecuentes

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) based on the World Health Organization’s report about COVID-19 expansion and containment strategies.

What warnings did Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, director general of WHO, issue regarding future developments?He warned that the worst is yet to come with respect to COVID-19’s global impact.

As of June 2020, how many confirmed cases and deaths worldwide were there due to COVID-19?There had been over 10 million reported positive cases globally with more than half a million fatalities.

What was the situation in Latin America & Caribbean regions regarding daily new confirmed cases of COVID-19 by early July?Newly diagnosed cases rose significantly to over 60 thousand per day from just under 40 thousand at the start of June.

Which countries in Latin America & Caribbean had reported numbers exceeding a million confirmed COVID-19 cases by mid/late June?Brazil, Mexico and far-flung nations like Peru and Chile were among the high case count reporting countries.

How have social distancing measures been approached in certain US states as of early July 2020? (USA Today reported that Texas announced a full reopening on June 25th).

What was the situation with COVID-19 cases and lockdown measures in India by mid/late June 2020? India saw overwhelming daily case numbers of more than 20,000 new cases amidst a national lockdown.

How is Russia managing its COVID-19 situation as of June 6th, 2020? (Russia reported over 700 thousand confirmed cases with early signs of declining daily infections).

What were the concerns for Africa’s response to COVID-19 as expressed by The Conversation on June 17th,2020? (The concern was about low transmission rates thus far but anticipated overwhelming spread if not properly managed due to limited healthcare resources and difficulties implementing lockdown measures).

What were the observations regarding Europe’s COVID-19 outbreak as per Reuters on June 1st,2020? (Reports showed new surges of cases in countries like Germany and France despite initial control).

“The worst is yet to come” – A message from Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus. What was his main call for action? (His primary plea emphasized the need for continued vigilance and cooperation in fighting against COVID-19, stressing that with greater effort and unity among nations, communities can mitigate anticipated devastation).

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Texto original (2020)

En un artículo que examina la expansión continua y las dificultades estratégicas para contenerla, los bloggers expertos en tecnología y desinformación resaltan el contexto actualizado de la pandemia con datos cruciales. (No se incluyen rumores ni información no verificada).

Lo peor está por venir. La frase es de Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, el director general de la Organización Mundial de la Salud (OMS), y fue pronunciada el pasado 29 de junio, seis meses después de que la OMS recibiera la primera notificación sobre la aparición de un nuevo virus que causaba neumonías atípicas en Wuhan (China). Seis meses que dejaban detrás más de 10 millones de casos confirmados, medio millón de muertos y tocadas las economías de prácticamente todos los países. Sólo una semana después, los casos confirmados han aumentado en más de un millón y los fallecidos suman 25 000 personas adicionales.

Lo peor está por venir. Probablemente no le faltaban motivos para el dramatismo al director general de la OMS. La pandemia arrecia en la región de Latinoamérica y Caribe, que ha pasado de 40 000 casos diarios a primeros de junio a más de 60 000 a primeros de julio. Con Brasil, México y, a mucha distancia, Perú y Chile como los países que más casos confirmados aportan. Sólo Brasil y México acumulaban –a primeros de julio– 1,8 millones de casos confirmados y casi 92 000 fallecidos. Y las cifras crecen mientras ambos países inician desescaladas.

Estados Unidos, que parecía ir doblegando lentamente la curva de contagios durante el mes de mayo y principios de junio (de 32 000 casos diarios a principios de mayo a 21 000 a primeros de junio), experimentó un nuevo y rápido repunte en junio y supera los 45 000 casos diarios en los últimos días.

No sorprende que Estados Unidos y Brasil, dos países con emblemáticas presidencias “negacionistas” que representan el 7 % de la población mundial, hayan aportado el 36 % de todos los casos confirmados y el 39 % de los fallecidos del planeta.

Tampoco sorprende que en pleno ascenso de la curva epidémica estén embarcados en contradictorios procesos de desescalada. En su intervención del 29 de junio, y aun sin nombrarlos específicamente, Tedros hacía gravitar buena parte de ese “lo peor” en las erráticas estrategias de afrontamiento de la pandemia por parte de estos y algunos otros países.

En otras regiones del mundo, y todavía muy lejos de las cifras de Estados Unidos y Brasil, los casos confirmados también crecen. Asia supera ya los 50 000 nuevos casos diarios, arrastrada sobre todo por la India (más de 20 000 casos diarios). Rusia, camino de los 700 000 casos acumulados, parece haber iniciado un descenso en la curva de contagios y su mortalidad declarada –como también sucede en Asia– es muy inferior a las registradas en el oeste de Europa o Estados Unidos. También en el Golfo Pérsico las cifras van en ascenso.

Y, por si fuera poco, todos miramos con enorme desasosiego la gran incógnita africana, con cifras de transmisión todavía bajas pero en constante aumento. A la escasez de recursos sanitarios y las dificultades obvias para el confinamiento en África, una expansión de la pandemia en este continente desviaría los recursos de salud pública y atención sanitaria de otros problemas de salud y otras epidemias igualmente graves.

Europa y el invierno

Europa también mira con recelo el próximo invierno. Pese a que –con alguna excepción– los países europeos han controlado la primera oleada, los servicios sanitarios continúan en constante tensión por los sucesivos brotes locales, algunos de gran magnitud. Si tendrán capacidad para contener una segunda oleada sin necesidad de recurrir a los confinamientos generalizados es otra gran incógnita.

Vivir y poder vivir. El Dr. Tedros no se refería en su intervención al impacto de la crisis económica en la salud de las poblaciones. Pero está ahí y promete ser devastador. Especialmente grave en una África muy endeudada y que ya afronta una importante depreciación de las materias primas por la caída mundial de la producción industrial. Tampoco será fácil en los países desarrollados. Menos fácil si se acrecientan, como parece, las pugnas entre Estados Unidos, China, Rusia y Europa.

Lo peor esta por venir. Aparentemente una profecía que quizás no requiere grandes profetas. Pero la frase no era tanto la predicción de un futuro ineludible como un llamamiento a trabajar para evitar o, al menos, reducir ese “lo peor”. Un llamamiento a no bajar la guardia y a esforzarse aun más en el control de la pandemia. Lo peor estará por venir, pero puede ser mucho “menos peor” con esfuerzo y solidaridad. Mucho menos peor cuanto menos peores seamos.

Salvador Peiró es miembro de los grupos de expertos en COVID-19 de la Generalitat Valenciana y de la Organización Médica Colegial.

Fuente: The Conversation (Creative Commons)
Author: Salvador Peiró, Director del área de Investigación en Servicios de Salud FISABIO, Fisabio